India’s Withdrawal from the RCEP Negotiations: A Chinese Perspective

India’s participation in the RCEP negotiations has gone through a “tangled” process from “indecision” to “active advancement” to “announcement of withdrawal”. This process has not only reflected the recent sharp change in India’s stance and attitude towards RCEP under the Modi administration, but also reflected the fact that India has been hesitant about its RCEP policy for a long time. Generally speaking, India's interest in RCEP mainly attributes to the potential long-term economic, political and strategic benefits of joining RCEP, as well as the fact that RCEP meets the status and needs of India’s socio-economic development better than other regional trade agreements, such as TPP. However, affected by factors such as relatively high short-term economic costs, disadvantages in relative returns in comparison with other RCEP members, domestic political pressure, strategic adjustment of the US in Asia-Pacific, shortcomings of the RCEP, as well as insufficient mutual trust among member countries, India has not been able to dispel doubts and be prepared to join RCEP physically and psychologically. As the RCEP issue becomes highly politicized domestically and the regional situation changes drastically under the “Trump shocks”, the interest preferences of the Modi administration have undergone significant changes in the international-domestic dual game. This is the main reason for India’s decision on withdrawing from the RCEP.

Keyword: Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation; RCEP negotiation; India’s “retreat”; Modi administration.